• Lamar’s viral diss track has soured rap adversary and UMG label-mate, Drake, who filed a pair of lawsuits against the company for allegedly inflating the song.

• “Not Like Us” reached #1 one week after its release, on May 18, 2024.

Recent allegations have surfaced questioning the legitimacy of Kendrick Lamar's streaming numbers for his hit track “Not Like Us." Using R and data analysis, I dive into the streaming data to examine how the song's performance compares to both artists' catalogs.

Using Spotify datasets from Kaggle users Aryan Singh and Iryna Tokarchuk (updated 2 months ago and 4 months ago, respectively, special thank you to them 🙏🏿) to get historic data along with this year’s streaming data, I developed a growth rate metric comparing a song's daily streaming performance to its total stream count - using logarithmic scaling to normalize across different time periods. This allowed for easier identification of which songs demonstrated unusually viral growth patterns.

THE METHOD

1. LOAD DATA ANALYSIS TOOLS:

library(readr)
library(tidyverse)
library(ggplot2)

2. LOAD IN DATASETS FROM KAGGLE:

library(readr)
spotify_full_list_20102023 <- read_csv("spotify_full_list_20102023.csv")
spotify_data <- read_csv("spotify_data.csv")

3. GROWTH RATE FUNCTION:

This is our function that will compare day-on-day stream growth to overall streams, logarithmically:

calc_growth_rate <- function(streams, daily) {
   return(log(daily) / log(streams))
}

4. DRAKE'S MOST STREAMED SONG ANALYSIS:

*Note that Drake's "One Dance" is coincidentally both his most streamed and most viral song with a growth rate of 0.643

drake_top_song <- spotify_data %>%
   filter(str_detect(`Songs & Artist`, "Drake")) %>%
   arrange(desc(Streams)) %>%
   slice_head(n = 1) %>%
   mutate(growth_rate = calc_growth_rate(Streams, Daily))

5. DRAKE'S TOP 3 MOST VIRAL SONGS:

1. Drake - One Dance - Growth Rate: 0.643 - Daily Streams: 1,329,534 - Total Streams: 3,343,221,259

2. Drake - Jimmy Cooks - Growth Rate: 0.6353 - Daily Streams: 535,092 - Total Streams: 1,038,562,486

3. Drake - Teenage Fever - Growth Rate: 0.629 - Daily Streams: 391,134 - Total Streams: 776,781,867

6. CALCULATE VIRALITY METRICS:

# Filter and calculate metrics for Kendrick's songs (excluding Not Like Us)
kendrick_other <- spotify_data %>%
   filter(str_detect(`Songs & Artist`, "Kendrick"), 
          !str_detect(`Songs & Artist`, "Not Like Us")) %>%
   mutate(growth_rate = calc_growth_rate(Streams, Daily))

# Filter and calculate metrics for Drake's other songs
drake_other <- spotify_data %>%
   filter(str_detect(`Songs & Artist`, "Drake"),
          `Songs & Artist` != drake_top_song$`Songs & Artist`) %>%
   mutate(growth_rate = calc_growth_rate(Streams, Daily))

# Filter and calculate metrics for Not Like Us
not_like_us <- spotify_data %>%
   filter(`Songs & Artist` == "Kendrick Lamar - Not Like Us") %>%
   mutate(growth_rate = calc_growth_rate(Streams, Daily))

THE RESULTS

The analysis revealed several key insights:

“Not Like Us" demonstrates an unusually high growth rate of 0.72, significantly outpacing the typical range (0.58-0.65) seen in both artists' top-performing tracks.
Drake's catalog shows impressive overall numbers. With over 3.3 billion streams, his most popular song “One Dance" has a billion stream lead over Kendrick’s most popular “HUMBLE.” However, the dancehall megahit has a growth rate of 0.643 which falls within the typical range of popular songs for both.
Interestingly, Kendrick’s songs show a history of being slightly more viral (higher on the Y-axis). The average top Kendrick song - excluding “Not Like Us” - is 3.74% more viral on average than the average top Drake song, suggesting Kendrick having an especially viral hit at some point, though unlikely, is not completely unexpected.

The BigGER Picture

While “Not Like Us" is an outlier, this alone doesn't confirm allegations of artificial streaming. What it does confirm is that the track's growth pattern is pretty unique in the realm of contemporary hip hop.

Drake regularly accumulates higher total stream counts across his catalog, suggesting broader mainstream appeal. For anyone familiar with either artist, this is not surprising.

This could have something to do with his tendency to release music more often. Drake has released four albums in the last 4 years (Her Loss - 2024, For All The Dogs - 2023, Honestly, Nevermind - 2022, and Certified Lover Boy - 2021). By contrast, Kendrick's tracks, particularly “Not Like Us," show more concentrated viral growth when they break out amidst a comparatively more infrequent release schedule (in the last 6 years he’s released Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers - 2022 and GNX - 2024).

But despite his PRIDE being hurt, Drake is still far and away the more listened to artist. That becomes especially clear when we look at the streaming splits of their combined discographies:

the quantified Conclusion

If Mr. Graham’s argument is that Kendrick’s song was “unusually successful” there’s plenty of data to support it. However, if he wants to prove the smash hit was an inside job, he’ll likely need more compelling evidence in court. The song’s viral success doesn't necessarily indicate artificial manipulation - it could just as easily mean that Kendrick’s release strategy (or lack thereof) works exceptionally well for him, or simply that a release from an anticipated artist resonated strongly with listeners.

Note: Analysis conducted using R with tidyverse and ggplot2, examining Spotify streaming data from both artists' catalogs.

Did Kendrick Cheat? Analyzing the Numbers Behind Drake’s “Not Like Us” Lawsuit